Heute journal 20.03.23: Bericht des Weltklimarats, Frankreichs Rentenreform, Credit Suisse (english)


BANKING SHOCKS CREDIT SUISSE AND THE FINANCIAL MARKET PENSION DISPUTE IN FRANCE "MOMENT OF TRUTH" IN PARLIAMENT CHAOS AND CONSTRUCTION IRAQ 20 YEARS AFTER THE US INVASION And now, the nightly news with Hanna Zimmermann and Christian Sievers. Good evening, everyone. The last thing this we could possibly need right now is a global financial crisis. We are not at that point yet, but the anxiety in the financial markets is palpable, as is investors' fear of losing their investments. The bank that once financed Switzerland's industrial expansion, through the rail network and the Gotthard tunnel, has reached the end of the line. With its fall, the country loses a national symbol. Just like when Swissair's planes were stranded around the globe because nobody wanted to continue doing business with a bankrupt company, we are now seeing the same thing at Credit Suisse. The scandalous and staggering downfall of a financial institution. The emergency takeover by its main competitor and an injection of billions in taxpayer funds are intended to prevent even more serious consequences. Will it succeed? Over to Dominik Lesmeister. Zurich, Paradeplatz, the home of the struggling Credit Suisse. The bank was proud to have avoided needing federal aid during the financial crisis 15 years ago. But in recent years, management errors have piled up. The Swiss bankers squandered billions in investment business, among other things. For example, the bank was involved in deals with autocrats and criminals, which the Swiss Leaks revealed a few years ago. The bank suffered losses from the bankruptcy of a hedge fund. They were heavily involved in the Greensill bankruptcy. This was a whole series of problems. The figures also demonstrate this. In 2022, Credit Suisse incurred a loss of about 7.3 billion Swiss francs, which is roughly equivalent to the same in euros. Clients left the bank in droves. In the fourth quarter alone, customers withdrew around 111 billion francs in assets. Were the Swiss banking regulators too late to respond? They evidently let the whole thing go on for too long.

They didn't push enough for bank or business model reforms. The question Is whether this was the bank regulators' job? Or should economic failure be allowed? However, in light of the risks to the whole system, many would argue that bank regulators should have intervened earlier. The bailout from the National Bank and the Swiss government over the weekend was unprecedented. UBS, the other major bank in Switzerland, had to take over Credit Suisse to avert disaster. The Swiss government has made liquidity pledges in the hundreds of billions. Shareholders have lost their say, all in order to save the Swiss banking industry. Swiss banking culture is of course a sacred national asset. It is therefore clear that they will get a handle on it. But the new bank, UBS, is so big. Who will be able to save them? What happens then? The Swiss banking trembles have caused unrest in financial markets. These questions loom in Frankfurt's bank towers: are German and Eurozone banks well-positioned? And is there threat of a new financial crisis? Measures taken by regulators and central banks in the USA and Switzerland have already calmed the markets considerably. We do not have a banking crisis, we have a situation of banking stress. In Brussels today, the ECB President reaffirmed that the Eurozone has grown since the recent turmoil. We believe that the banking sector in the Eurozone is resilient, with strong capital and liquidity positions. Nevertheless, I'd like to repeat that we stand ready to provide liquidity support to the Euro area financial system. The message is clear: the markets should remain calm, in order to avoid repeating the 2008 financial crisis. Peer Steinbrück was Germany's Finance Minister during the great financial crisis of 2008, and he is joining us now. Good evening, Mr Steinbrück. Good evening, Mr Sievers. How do you feel right now, once again reminded of what you had to manage back then? As the politically empty phrase goes, "both and.

" In respect to the anxiety, I am reminded of the uncertain hesitance of many investors back then. But frankly, the actual situation is by no means as dramatic as it was in 2008 and 2009. And in view of today's comments, I think we should to be careful about overdramatizing. which could cause further uncertainty for many customers, stakeholders and investors. We should be very cautious. You say that this won't be as dramatic as it was in the past. The banking system actually has some safeguards now. Nevertheless, the concern prevails. Why do we seem unable to address the incompetence and greed of individuals, banks, and bank managers? This does exist. And there are still people who are simply gambling. But they don't just exist in the banking sector, but in other places as well. And some of them are investors like you and me. But in the context of the previous crisis, we have to note that the starting point was three specific medium-sized American banks that speculated in the bond market, as well as a European bank like Credit Suisse, which has been regarded as a rather unsafe institution for three or four years now. It has done many things wrong, not only wrong in the sense of bad decisions, but they were also involved in money laundering, corruption, and spying on their own people. in fact from a moral standpoint, and even more so considering an extremely difficult situation, they in no way deserved the confidence of investors. During the Lehman Brothers' time, people also thought this would just affect the US. I think you said this yourself, Mr Steinbrück, that, "this is just an American problem." We now know better that this is not true. We are seeing the same story repeat itself. High risk, big bonuses, and in the end, the taxpayers will pay. What has to happen for this to actually stop? Yes, that's true about the bonuses. It applies particularly to Credit Suisse, when you consider that they have paid out around 30 billion Swiss francs in bonuses over the last ten years.

And in the same ten years, I think they've incurred 2 to 3 billion in losses. But it's not as if nothing has been done. There have been regulations put in place. The liquidity buffers are better. There has been a bigger core capital requirement. We are dealing with European banking supervision. We are dealing with a shield that is still inadequate, but nonetheless financed by the banks. Many things were set in motion, which is why I think it is accurate to say that European and German banks are much more resilient and robust than they were 15 years ago. Mr Steinbrück, I can also hear from what you're saying, how important it is not to succumb to nervousness. So psychology is the key word of this story. That's a very high demand to place on people in the face of our hyper nervous markets. There are moments that you, as finance minister, as well as bank customer, will always remember. Let's take a look at these memories. We promise savers that their deposits are safe. The Federal Government stands by that. I would like to emphasize the joint responsibility we feel as the government of the Federal Republic. We want to ensure that savers in Germany will not have to fear losing any savings. Mr Steinbrück, those were your words. What lessons can we apply from your speech today? That politics should neither trivialize nor downplay anything. They should tell citizens the truth. However, it should also be able to establish safeguards. And ensure good crisis management development in cooperation between the federal government, the bank regulators, the European central bank and other partners. And that the banking regulators should be required to more closely scrutinize potential risks that may arise. Do we also need such an appearance from Scholz and Lindner? One hears similar words from the Chancellor, but so far always only via a government spokesman. Is he trying to find a middle ground? Or how do you see it? Yes, I understood so far, that he is hinting at a guarantee, which would be comparable to 2008 to some degree.

There is a lot of psychology behind this. which I think is important for preventing further anxiety from investors. President Biden did the same thing in the United States. This weekend, a fairly stringent management program was also set in motion in Switzerland, which, at least for the foreseeable future, has somewhat calmed the markets down. Yes, the Swiss acted as firefighters. The Swiss government is putting out fires with inconceivable amounts of taxpayers' money. So using unpopular resources. The Neue Zürcher newspaper wrote today, "a zombie disappears as a monster emerges." This new super bank emerging in Switzerland has a balance twice as large as the country's gross domestic product. This means that the government will become vulnerable to blackmail from this bank, Because this bank is really too big to fail. Isn't it? Yes, indeed. Its assets total over 1,500 billion. So 1.5 trillion Swiss francs, which is indeed colossal. On the other hand, these Swiss banks have always been positioned strongly on the international stage, such that their activities, balance sums, and assets actually extended far beyond national borders. On the other hand, we need to ask whether it's time to stabilise and possibly reduce this balance sheet, to reduce its overall volume. In 2008, Angela Merkel said that she went to sleep every night, worrying about which bank would ask for money the next morning. How well are you sleeping these days? As well as I was in the weeks before, but it is correct to point out that in a landscape already unsettled by the pandemic, inflation, the terrible war in Ukraine and supply chain issues, people are much more nervous than they would otherwise be, extending beyond the scope of a few bank crises, which crushes the market as a whole. From Peer Steinbrück, former Finance Minister. Mr Steinbrück, thank you for joining us this evening.

Thanks as well. We recorded the interview just before this broadcast. "When everyone is rushing to ensure that everything is okay, it usually means that things are not okay." That's what one analyst said today about several central banks' attempts last night to improve the supply of the dollar, and to strengthen financial stability. The stock markets are not quite convinced. Credit Suisse shares sank 56 percent. Valerie Haller, good evening in Frankfurt. How are the stock markets generally looking? Yes, the takeover of Credit Suisse has reduced a lot of stress in the bank system. No uncontrolled collapse. People are getting the impression that the coast is clear for now. It appears as such on the stock market. The DAX ended the day decently, up about one percent. Bank stocks also somewhat recovered somewhat, but at a much slower pace. That points to what might be coming down the line. So reassurance, yes, but we are not in the clear. As far as the success of this historic mega merger in Switzerland is concerned, which neither bank wanted, there are still some question marks, aren't there? Yes, because the merger was already quite an abrupt action by the Swiss government. It's unclear whether it's even legally sound and whether or not lawsuits will follow. History also shows that things don't always go well when two giants join forces. UBS is at risk of needing recovery itself. Merging two large systems takes time, and it's usually very, very expensive. And in regards to the legacy of Credit Suisse: It issued bonds worth billions. Who has them and how many are in custody accounts? No one knows. After all, there are 16 billion euros in the fire. That's quite a chunk that needs to be processed by the system. Room for questions and surprises remain. Valerie in Frankfurt, thanks for this analysis. And that's all for tonight on this topic. The French government survived a no-confidence vote in parliament. The planned pension reform, the central project of President Emmanuel Macron's second term, has therefore been approved.

Nevertheless, without the National Assembly's final vote. Macron and his government pushed it through using special powers. On the streets, there is still a lot of distrust amongst our neighbours. Anna Wassberg is in Paris. Failure to achieve the required majority is a disgrace. The vote of no confidence has not been accepted. The left-wing opposition had its response ready: "We will continue, and we will meet in the streets," read their signs. The government was allowed to stay. The pension reform was passed, but the political wrangling continues. I am relieved that no confidence motion was blocked, as some predicted. This is a defeat for the opposition. There is neither a majority in the House for this bill, or for Ms Borne. The Prime Minister enacted Article 49-3 because she knew she would lose the pension reform vote otherwise. And that was a slap in the face for the French. Now, there must be a popular referendum, or the reform must be withdrawn. The result of the second no-confidence vote seemed to only be a formality. The government remains in session, while the rest, as we mentioned, take their anger to the streets, to protest the government. Protests across France became increasingly radical over the weekend. There was a Macron doll on a stake, Molotov cocktails in Marseille and a fire in the town hall in Lyon. Even after today, many French people won't accept that President Macron can push through a reform that affects their retirement without a vote. I was expecting that. So I'm definitely not disappointed. These people can't disappoint me anymore. Tomorrow we'll be back on the streets. The fight goes on. They want to use violence so we will also use violence. It could be another uncomfortable few days in France. President Macron has yet to comment on any of this. On the streets this evening, the authorities are cracking down. Yes, that sounds somewhat dramatic.

We go live in Paris to Anne Arend. Good evening. The reform has gone through, as we understand. What's going on now with the protests? Yes, the no-confidence measure here in parliament, in the Assemblée Nationale has been overcome, and thus the pension reform has been passed. But as we saw the last clip, that does not mean an end to the protests. Immediately after the decision, people gathered for spontaneous demonstrations in Paris and other cities, and even through these dense walls, we can hear the police sirens. The anger, it can be assumed, will be expressed even louder on the streets in the coming days. A large demonstration has been announced for Thursday. It is expected that the strikes will continue, as the majority in the country reject this reform and the way it has now been implemented, with Macron pushing forward alone has probably alienated the French people in the long term. It's also interesting how close the whole affair turned out to be. President Macron's government survived this vote of no-confidence by a hair's breadth. How weak is the President now? Yes, he is considerably weakened, I would say. With the decision to link the pension reform to the vote of confidence he walked a very fine line. President Macron, whose camp has no majority of its own in parliament, speculated that the conservatives would stand by him and this only barely, very narrowly worked out. It shows how difficult it will be for him to implement political projects in the future and to find comrades-in-arms for his plans. The opposition from both the left and the extreme right is driving him out. Now Macron, who once set out to reform the country is basically at a political impasse. Difficult times in France. Anne Arend in Paris, thank you very much for this report tonight. With that, we'll move to world politics here in the broadcast with Hanna. Now to a meeting that is getting a lot of international attention because for the first time since the start of the Russian war against Ukraine Chinese leader Xi has travelled to Moscow for a visit.

There he was greeted by Russian President Putin as a friend. Both emphasised their unity. In addition to deepening trade relations, the three-day state visit is also expected to address the war in Ukraine. China has not condemned it so far. The foreign and defence ministers of the European Union have decided to supply Ukraine with one million artillery shells over the next twelve months. Part of this is to be supplied by member states from their own stocks. A joint order for new ammunition is also planned. In total, the EU is providing around 2 billion euros for this action. German Defence Minister Pistorius stressed that the deliveries must be carried out quickly. In order to support reconstruction in Turkey and Syria after the devastating earthquake seven billion euros were pledged to the two countries at an international donor conference. The EU Commission alone announced one billion for Turkey and 108 million euros for Syria. The severe earthquakes six weeks ago killed more than 50,000 people and left millions homeless. Artificial intelligence is becoming more and more important. The German Ethics Council has now commented on the possible risks of AI and indicated in a statement that it should not replace humans. Artificial intelligence must expand human development and not diminish it according to Chairwoman Buyx of the German Ethics Council. In the medical field, for example, the use of AI makes perfect sense. However, this must not lead to a loss of competence among physicians. It's the last warning. Our time is running out. If we do not drastically change course now, the climate catastrophe can no longer be stopped. A catastrophe that puts up to 3.6 billion people in particular danger. That's almost half the world's population. These are the figures given to us today by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change a committee of 195 countries that has evaluated and summarised data from thousands of experts.

In other words, something like the collective knowledge of science. As dystopian as this warning reads, the report aims to be much more. Namely, a "guide to life for humanity", as the UN Secretary-General put it today. Because we can secure a future worth living for all if we act now. Elisa Miebach and Brigitte Saar with more. The men from the Munich Water Management Office measure the groundwater levels with concern. Too little rain or snow. This winter, too, water levels were unable to recover. Here in Haar, the water level is 1.5 metres below the average, a record low and also an indication that climate change is progressing. We have now had ten years in the last twelve years where we had less precipitation so less rain than we normally have. That means that we have 200 litres less water available per square meter. Today in Interlaken, Switzerland, IPCC presented the world's largest study on climate change summarising the current state of the science. The report clearly says that global warming is man-made. The Earth has already warmed by 1.1ºC and with each additional tenth of a degree, the damage worsens. It would take three to six times more investment than we have currently to keep the climate crisis from escalating completely. From a global perspective, there is sufficient money available but it's not yet adequately invested in climate protection and climate change adaptation. We talk a lot about financing renewable energies, and that's fine. Nevertheless, at the moment the investments are still larger in the traditional carbon-based industry. In short, it needs action on all fronts. Everything everywhere all at once. Ulrich Mäck from Günzburg has been giving his all to climate protection for 30 years. His life's work: turning farmland back into a moor. It's not just in transport and energy that greenhouse gases can be massively saved. The basic materials of greenhouse gases, like carbon, are stored by the bog plants.

When I take a drained moor and rehydrate it then it reacts so quickly that it actually buys us some time in connection with the climate crisis. Farmer Christian Mayer now has a herd of water buffalo in the moor. He hopes the marsh will help to control the drought in his neighbouring fields. It absorbs excess rain, provides cooling on hot days and soaks the soil down to groundwater. If the moor can raise the groundwater again, then we have here really the possibility to still bring in yield from the crops. Because in order for grass or grain to grow, we need water and topsoil. And when both are gone, then nothing grows anymore. Solutions to the climate crisis really do exist in many places. Now it's a matter of implementing them on a large scale. 20 years ago today, shortly after 4AM our time US President George W. Bush appeared on television and announced a decision that haunts not just the United States to this day. Operation Iraqi Freedom, the invasion of Iraq by US troops. The so-called "coalition of the willing" on a mission based on the false claim that Iraq's dictator Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. It was one of the most momentous missteps of the 21st century. One that cost America its credibility in many parts of the world. The day a superpower broke international law in the name of democracy. The worst consequences of the war were felt in Iraq itself where hundreds of thousands of civilians lost their lives as a result. Alica Jung. Nisour Square in Baghdad. Jassim Mohamed was in the wrong place at the wrong time. The scar will never let him forget. Jassim Mohamed was shot in the head by an American mercenary. A massacre in broad daylight. 17 people were killed that day. Mercenary soldiers, who were supposed to protect US diplomats, killed the innocent. Orphans, widows, martyrs, wounded. Who will compensate them? Millions are still affected by the American invasion today. Sometimes his head hurts so much that he would like to tear it off and put it down.

The American invasion changed his life, changed the whole country. It was the end of dictator Saddam Hussein who was apprehended by the Americans nine months after the start of the invasion. But instead of freedom, the Americans brought suffering and chaos. Instead of a united Iraq, the invasion further fuelled sectarian divisions. Religious minorities like Christians were attacked and continue to leave the country in droves today. Violet Isaac, one of the few who stayed, described the attack on her church as a shock. It was normal after the war, after the fall of Baghdad. It wasn't just churches that were blown up, but mosques too. There were attacks on Muslims and Christians. A security vacuum ensued. These bloody years have left their mark on people to this day. When you left the house, you had to be constantly afraid that there could be an explosion any time. You were afraid for your life, for your family. That meant psychological stress. Under Saddam Hussein, the Sunni Muslims ruled. Now, it's the Shiites who have control and Iran is gaining more and more influence. A constant battle which spawned violent militias. It has destroyed tradition and culture. This war has destroyed so much. The National Museum was looted at the beginning of the war. Iraq's cultural heritage lost. 17,000 stolen objects have now been returned and the museum has been brought back to life. Of course, we hope to get all the objects back. A whole department is working on it. With God's help, we hope for the best. And so the people of Iraq hope to regain their identity someday. In Iraq, with its hopelessly fragmented political system, they have hope. In the USA, the deep political wounds inflicted by this war are also still experienced today. And in Moscow, China's strong man arrives today and poses as a peacemaker. He'll have many talks there tomorrow which we'll report on in detail. But now for today, it's back to you, Hanna. Pensioners in Germany will receive more money as of July 1.

This was announced by Federal Minister of Labour Heil. In western Germany, the increase is 4.39 percent. In the east, pensions will be raised by 5.86 percent. As a result of the increase, pension values will then be the same in the east and west. The Bundesbank expects economic output in Germany to decline again in the first quarter. However, this is likely to be less severe than the end of 2022, when it was minus 0.4 percent. That is according to the central bank's monthly report. If GDP falls for two quarters in a row, this is considered a technical recession. Families see themselves increasingly burdened due to inflation and as a result of the pandemic. This is the result of the new Family Barometer presented today by Federal Family Minister Paus. In it, 70% of parents said in December that inflation was a heavy personal burden on them. Just under half felt severely restricted in their everyday lives by the price increases. Only 43% of parents rated their economic situation as positive. So that was our Monday on the "heute journal." There was a lot going on. Thank you for your interest. Just a reminder that there is the "heute jourrnal update" at 12:10 AM with Nazan Gökdemir. What should AI be allowed to do? That's one of the topics. It will include a conversation with AI expert Tina Klüwer. From all of us here, including the colleagues behind the cameras, have a pleasant evening. Bye. Good evening, the astronomical beginning of spring is at 10:24 PM. We also have a small spring high here. However, it will move on eastward tomorrow. And then a new low will be approaching with a cold front, bringing rain. That's actually quite good, because the vegetation is almost 15 days ahead of schedule. What the plants urgently need now is rain. You can already see the next low coming in over Great Britain. Tonight it'll start to rain harder here in the northwest. Otherwise, it's just light rain. And in the south, it's partly clear and there's fog forming.

It will be a mostly mild night. Temperatures will drop to 9ºC on the Lower Rhine and to 4ºC on the Baltic Sea. Only towards the Upper Palatinate between the Allgäu and in Breisgau it'll be colder, 0º to 3ºC. Tomorrow there will be a very clear south-north gradient with the temperatures. Temperatures in the south will climb to between 16º and 18ºC. In the north it will remain much cooler with 10º to 14ºC as rain clouds move in especially over the north. By noon they'll reach the Bay of Lübeck, the Harz Mountains and the Thuringian Forest. In the south, however, there will be much nicer weather, with periods of proper sunshine. On Wednesday, there will be a short break of rain as the low pressure area "Ian" moves eastward but Hilmar I and Hilmar II will follow quickly. So it'll be a rainy week for us. It'll be more volatile in the next days, first in the northwest, then later towards the southeast with quite mild temperatures between 10º and 19ºC. Good evening.